Gates predicts the web will revolutionize TV within 5 years

Bill Gates was at the World Economic Summit in Switzerland over the weekend, and
he forecasted that the Internet will change television within the next five
years. Here's a link to the article on CNET, and here's a clip:

"In the years ahead, more and more viewers will hanker after the
flexibility offered by online video and abandon conventional broadcast
television, with its fixed program slots and advertisements that interrupt
shows, Gates said." 

Do you agree? What kind of changes do you think we will see--and when?

Interesting idea that advertisements would/do not interrupt online video. 
On TV sometimes there is a commercial and sometimes there is an opportunity 
to run to the kitchen but most of the time the program is alone. 

On my computer there are always a whole slew of ads, and sometimes there is 
a program in the middle of them. 

 wrote in message news:22544@hive.net... 
Bill Gates was at the World Economic Summit in Switzerland over the weekend, 
and he forecasted that the Internet will change television within the next 
five years. Here's a link to the article on CNET, and here's a clip: 

"In the years ahead, more and more viewers will hanker after the
flexibility 
offered by online video and abandon conventional broadcast television, with 
its fixed program slots and advertisements that interrupt shows, Gates 
said." 

Do you agree? What kind of changes do you think we will see--and when?

I disagree.

While there are a few areas of TV that might benefit from interactive features,
in general, people "watch TV" they don't want to interact with it.
Also, I would have expected Gates to make such a claim before he had a family:
The stereotypical computer geek might envision TV being in interactive media,
but unlike computers (MPGs excepted), the TV is not a single user device.
Families tend to watch TV together. It's bad enough when you have a "remote
hog" in the room. Imagine trying to watch your favorite program, or even
sporting event (the classic poster child for interactive TV) with someone else
running the activity? No thanks!

Also, it's very expensive to produce a TV program. The production needs to be
paid for by keeping the audience. If YouTube is the model that Gates sees as the
future of TV, then it has no future. My Space, YouTube, etc. are fads that kids
get into for a short time, but you won't see them have the staying power of TV
that has lasted for over 50 years. 

I'd write more about why this won't happen, but it's the end of the day and I'm
tired, I think I'll just go and watch some TV instead. ;-)